Early warning
Diesel signals: see surcharge changes coming
Ground fuel surcharges follow the EIA retail diesel price, which follows wholesale diesel. Watching the chain gives you one to three weeks of warning.
Wholesale diesel fell about 31¢ a gallon last week. Retail diesel usually follows within one to three weeks, which would push ground fuel surcharges down after that.
Wholesale and crude
| Market | Latest | Week | 1 week | 4 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale diesel, New York Harbor | $4.757 | Oct 30 | −44.4¢ | −11.4¢ |
| Wholesale diesel, U.S. Gulf Coast | $4.782 | Oct 30 | −16.6¢ | +5.1¢ |
| WTI crude oil, Cushing | $105.59 | Oct 30 | −$1.58 | +$7.52 |
| Brent crude oil | $121.17 | Oct 30 | +$0.15 | +$1.14 |
EIA weekly spot prices. Diesel in $ per gallon, crude in $ per barrel.
Regional diesel
Most carriers use the national average, but regional prices explain what your local trucking pays, and some carriers bill shippers without an agreement on a regional index. Survey of November 9, 2026.
| Region | $ per gallon | vs. U.S. average |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. average | $6.276 | |
| East Coast (PADD 1) | $5.920 | −35.6¢ |
| New England | $6.349 | +7.3¢ |
| Central Atlantic | $6.412 | +13.6¢ |
| Lower Atlantic | $5.694 | −58.2¢ |
| Midwest (PADD 2) | $6.201 | −7.5¢ |
| Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | $5.741 | −53.5¢ |
| Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) | $6.206 | −7.0¢ |
| West Coast (PADD 5) | $7.110 | +83.4¢ |
| West Coast less California | $6.429 | +15.3¢ |
| California | $7.897 | +162.1¢ |
What the EIA outlook means per $100
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 6, 2026. Each carrier’s newest table applied to EIA’s diesel forecast. Scenarios, not quotes.
| Carrier | Next week | Dec–Dec 2026 $4.82 diesel | 2027 average $4.49 diesel |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPS Ground | $29.50 | $27.75 | $27.50 |
| FedEx Ground | $30.00 | $28.00 | $27.75 |
| OnTrac Ground | $26.25 | $22.75 | $21.75 |
| Amazon Shipping Ground parcel | $21.00 | $18.25 | $17.75 |
- Retail diesel stays above $6 per gallon in October, then declines gradually as crude prices fall and distillate inventories recover.
- Low distillate inventories keep retail diesel above $4 per gallon through 2027.
- Retail margins, squeezed in 2026, recover in 2027, which may slow how quickly lower wholesale prices reach the pump.
How to use the signal
When wholesale diesel moves sharply, tell finance before the invoice does, time movable volume, and check whether a fuel cap is about to apply. Read the guide or plan a 13-week budget.
Paying the posted rate?
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