Guide 9 of 11 · 5 minute read
Budgeting fuel with scenarios
You cannot forecast diesel. You can know exactly what each diesel scenario costs you.
Sensitivity first
For UPS and FedEx Ground above their pivot prices, every 9¢ of diesel moves the surcharge 0.25 points. On $1 million of affected spend, that is $2,500 a year per 9¢. Knowing that number lets finance plan for a range rather than a guess.
Three scenarios
Plan with a flat case at today’s diesel price, a high case and a low case. Our budget planner runs 13 weeks under each using the carriers’ actual tables, including the coarser steps below the pivot.
Watch the early signals
Wholesale diesel tends to lead the retail price that carriers use. Our diesel signals page tracks it each week, along with EIA’s published outlook.
Key takeaways
- Every 9¢ of diesel is about $2,500 a year per $1 million of ground spend above the pivot.
- Budget a range, not a point.
- Wholesale diesel moves before carrier surcharges.
By the Logistics Contract Optimizer team. Rates cited are from the week of November 2, 2026 unless stated; see the rate board for this week.